Hello! Welcome back to our US midterms briefing.

Click here to see how popular Trump is today, and click here for a quick breakdown on what the midterms are all about.

Here's what you need to know today

• Presidents hit the trail: Republican President Donald Trump and Democratic former president Barack Obama are heading to Ohio and Georgia respectively to shore up votes as the US enters its last week before the midterms. These states are the sites of critical contests that could decide which party could control the US Senate for the remainder of Trump's term. Obama kept a low profile for most of this election cycle, but has hit the campaign trail in recent days to deliver some fiery speeches against his successor.
• Hunt for non-citizen voters: The Trump administration has issued more than 100 subpoenas demanding records on tens of thousands of voters in at least 13 states, Reuters reports. It's the latest in an effort to uncover evidence of voter fraud. Election officials and lawyers worry the investigations could undermine confidence in election systems, and be used to attack the legitimacy of narrow races. Since Trump returned to office, prosecutors have accused at least 147 people of illegally voting, Reuters reports, but the cases amount to fewer than one for every million people who voted in 2024.
• The tale of two Dans: If you missed it, Republican senator Dan Sullivan is defending his Alaska seat from independent candidate … Dan Sullivan. It's been a point of ire for Republicans for months, with (unsuccessful) challenges to throw the newcomer off the ballot making it all the way to the Alaska Supreme Court. They argue the second Sullivan (AKA, Dan J Sullivan) is running just to confuse voters. Dan J Sullivan has maintained he's running for legitimate reasons. But a New York Times exclusive has put a new twist in the tale, reporting that campaign aides for Democratic candidate Mary Peltola sought a spoiler candidate by the name of Dan Sullivan to undermine the senator back in 2025.

A deeper dive

I messaged North America correspondent Kamin Gock about the Republican Party's standing in states that are typically conservative. Here's what he had to say.

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Elissa Fitzgerald

Trump is off to Ohio after a campaign blitz in Texas yesterday. That's a lot of time spent on what are usually safe Republican areas. Is he worried about losing ground here?

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Kamin Gock

Absolutely — this will be his third visit to the state this month! Ohio has been reliably Republican in Senate races. But it could now be a crucial battle ground, with polls showing a very competitive race between Republican Jon Husted and Democrat Sherrod Brown. If the Democrats pick up four Senate seats across the country, they'll retake control of the upper house. In Ohio, Democrats also hope they can pick up a seat in the House of Representatives and none of that spells good news for Trump.

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Elissa Fitzgerald

You spent some time in Nebraska — another typically red state — not long ago. What did you learn there?

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Kamin Gock

Some farmers are really feeling rising costs linked to tariffs and the Iran war, particularly fuel and fertiliser price hikes. One farmer told me he is paying an extra $US1,400 ($1984) a day for diesel to operate his farm. Those are extra costs the farmers I spoke to say they did not vote for.

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Kamin Gock

There was a lot of disquiet and disappointment among Republicans, but just because they are unhappy with Trump doesn't mean they will vote Democrat. As one man told me, he probably just won't vote.

You can read more about Kamin's trip to Nebraska here.

How popular is Donald Trump today?

US President Donald Trump might not be up for election at the midterms, but his popularity will have a strong influence over the outcome.

The president's party almost always loses House seats in midterm elections and that trend gets steeper when the president is unpopular.

Historic polling data collated by analytics firm Gallup shows presidents with approval ratings below 50 per cent have seen their party lose an average of 37 House seats.

Presidents with approval ratings above 50 per cent have netted smaller loses, with an average of 14 seats.

Your crash course on the midterms

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Thanks for joining me! I'll be back same time tomorrow with more.